![]() Further comparisons on the magnitude of increase remained challenging because of heterogeneous methodological choices between projection studies. Under the scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, we found that projection studies estimate an increase in future fire danger and burnt areas varying, on average, from 2 to 4% and from 5 to 50% per decade, respectively. We reviewed 23 projection studies that examined future wildfire danger or wildfire activity at local, regional or continental scale. In this review, we pursue a twofold objective: (i) report the trends in wildfire danger and activity projected under warming climate in southern Europe and (ii) discuss the limitations of these projections. Warmer and drier conditions projected in this region are expected to profoundly affect wildfire regimes. Wildfire is the main disturbance in forested ecosystems of southern Europe. ![]() ![]() Further studies are needed to both assess and reduce uncertainties on future trends. ![]() Fire-prone area expansion to the north and to Mediterranean mountains is a concern, while climate-induced burnt area increase might be limited by fuel availability in the most arid areas. Wildfire danger and burnt areas should increase over the century in southern Europe, owing to climate warming. ![]()
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